By Senator Sehar Kamran (TI)
Dec 17, 2015

APSMein anay wala kal hoon, woh mujhe kyun aaj maray ga?
Ye us ka weham ho ga ke woh aisay khwaab maray ga

These verses reflect not only the message of hope and strength that resonated across the faces of the survivors of the Army Public School tragedy, but also the resilience that has been demonstrated by APS students since that Black Day in the pages of Pakistan’s history. Since then, these verses have also become the anthem of every child across the nation resolved to ‘rise and shine’ in the face of such base attempts at intimidation by the cowardly peddlers of terror. There is no ambiguity whatsoever that the attacks of December 16, 2014 were an attack not only on the children of Pakistan but on the education system itself, in a bid to derail the country’s future. But there is even lesser uncertainty today, almost a year on from the massacre, of the entire nation’s resolve to stand united and undeterred against such recreant brutality and to continue the pursuit of progress and excellence.

What stands to scrutiny then are the actions of the State of Pakistan to support this resolve and reinforce the protection of its citizens, and the ideals they seek to uphold. In the immediate aftermath of the tragedy at APS, the Prime Minister of Pakistan had summoned an All Parties’ Conference (APC) in Peshawar, in which all political parties had resolved to fight terrorism and build consensus on all issues of national importance. A 20 point ‘Action Plan’ had been drafted, and adopted in the Parliament as the National Action Plan (NAP). While the much hyped document has certainly been in the news since its initiation, unfortunately the goals and targets set therein have remained mostly unattainable. In fact, in July 2015, the Supreme Court of Pakistan itself termed the national counter terrorism strategy as a “plan of inaction”. Senior judge Justice Jawwad S. Khawaja remarked that not ‘a single bit’ of work had been done on the plan, despite the passage of six months. While some progress has been made on some points, many vital aspects of the NAP continue to be ignored.

As the one year anniversary of NAP draws close, there is a flurry of statements by leaders across the political spectrum, all fairly ambiguous as to why the goals set by NAP and unanimously agreed upon continue to remain elusive. Instead of acting as a single cohesive body, the state apparatus appears to have divided into ‘parties’ and ‘blocs’, all bent on protecting themselves and displacing blame over the lack of progress on NAP.

Of the twenty core issues addressed by the NAP, the most important matter that has remained unaddressed and is at the heart of the ineffectiveness of NAP is the activation of the National Counter-Terrorism Authority (NACTA). The organization that was meant to be at the heart of Pakistan’s counter terrorism and violent extremism drive and the central coordination agency remains un-empowered for a multitude of reasons. It has seen five ‘National Coordinators’ in two years, and has a strength of mere 57against the present 300 posts. Furthermore, no funds were included in the budget presented for FY 2015-2016, despite a request for Rs 960 million from the Ministry of Finance for its activation. As a result, the combined deterrence plan and comprehensive response plans envisaged under the National Internal Security Policy (NISP) remain largely un-implemented, and the formation of Joint Intelligence Directorate (JID) distant dream.
Similarly there are many other aspects of the NAP that have received far too little attention over the year, let alone actual enforcement. The fifth of the twenty points, for example, was concerned with literature, newspapers and magazines promoting hatred, decapitation, extremism, sectarianism and intolerance. While some action has certainly been taken against such publications espousing hate through cases registered under the Anti-Terrorism Act of 1997, many more go unchecked as the law remains inadequate to guarantee convictions for the accused in such cases. Many chat rooms and social media channels also continue to freely spread hate speech.

The next point dealt with constraining the finances of terrorist networks by cracking down on funding chains. Most of these outfits however, have already switched to innovative, ‘alternate’ money transfer networks – both ‘hawala’ based and informal – and no longer depend upon regular bank accounts. Worryingly, there is no action plan to combat such alternate mechanisms. For example, according to a study by the Pakistan Peace Collective (PPC), of only the money raised for charity in Pakistan annually, approximately 18 to 20% ends up in the hands of such terrorist organizations; 20% of 550 billion rupees is no small amount.

Furthermore, many defunct groups continue to operate within the country under pseudonyms, notably those with a focus on sectarian activities. Organized street protests, donation drives and control over various madrassas highlight how they are still operating without many checks. Their activities have claimed over 5,000 lives in Pakistan to date.

In this context, the delays in the registration and regulation of religious seminaries are a further problem. The total number of madrassas affiliated with the Wafaq is approximately 28,000, a tiny figure in comparison to the actually functional unregistered seminaries, scores of which escape the scrutiny of the government as they are usually built as an additional room of a mosque. There is no credible information for the number of unregistered madrassas, particularly since they are generally located in remote areas.

Similarly, little has been done to encourage the end of religious extremism and the protection of minorities. Pakistan’s abysmal record of the protection of its minorities and indiscriminate use of laws to persecute them is nothing short of disgraceful.

Little has been done to empower the Baloch government, and certainly no steps have been taken to establish and deploy a dedicated counter-terrorism force. There is still no comprehensive policy to resolve the issue of Afghan refugees. Nothing has been done to reform and empower criminal courts to strengthen anti-terrorism institutions.

Amongst the most commonly cited reasons for this slow progress are the lack of coordination between government Ministers and law enforcement agencies, the misappropriation of funds, an inactive NACTA, the ineffectiveness of the apex committees – when eleven of the fifteen are chaired by one of the already busiest men in the country, what better could be expected – a somewhat tense civil-military relationship and most importantly, the lack of political will.

There is no doubt that 16th December will forever be marked as a Black day in the history of Pakistan, and for more reasons than one. It will be as the ‘day when our spirits were jolted but not broken’. Our forces have since fought bravely and Operation Zarb-e-Azb has offered a much-needed respite from the onslaught of terrorism, but now more than ever, it is the need of the hour that instead of playing the blame game, all stakeholders join hands to eliminate, once and for all, the threats posed to our nation. It is vital for the government to consolidate the gains made by the military, and the political leadership will have to play its part properly if the efforts against counterterrorism are not to go to waste. Terrorists alone cannot break our spirit, especially when we stand united as we do today, but the faith in the State’s counter-terrorism efforts must be restored for this drive to bear fruit.

Today we are honoured to say that we are proud of our forces and the slogan of our children ‘Mujhay dushman ke bachon ko parhana hai’. Let us hope that in this New Year, we may also be able to express similar sentiments for the NAP and in a long-overdue real drive by the Pakistani government to counter terrorism. Pakistan Zindabad.

By Abdul Ghafoor

May 19, 2015

Afghan-Dialogue[1]Afghan Taliban held a meeting on May 2 with the representatives of the Afghan government and United Nation officials at Qatar. The eight-member Taliban delegation included various high officials headed by Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai; whereas, the Afghan government delegation was comprised of twenty members from three different ethnic groups of Afghanistan, led by the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s uncle- Qayyum Kochai. The meeting was organized by the Canadian organization Pugwash Council and titled “Afghanistan Dialogue”.

The Afghan government signified their consent for the re-opening of the Afghan Taliban office in Doha and the Taliban delegation agreed to hold talks with Afghan government in near future. However, no progress was made regarding a possible ceasefire. Meanwhile, Taliban fighters in Afghanistan stormed at a check-post in Badakhshan province killing eighteen security personnel. The Taliban tied the condition of US and Western forces’ withdrawal from Afghanistan to the ceasefire. Furthermore, they also demanded the removal of Taliban’s higher ranked officer’s names from the UN terrorism blacklist.

The Afghan Taliban talks with government are a positive sign for the peace and stability of Afghanistan and the region. A ‘political’ office of the Taliban enables them to hold direct talks with Afghan government, so as to reach a mutually-agreed mechanism for a future ceasefire. Albeit, it may be early to hold such a high expectations, particularly considering the fact that the Taliban have already declared the Afghan constitution as un-Islamic and drawn from the western values.

The Taliban are well aware that politico-ideological space has shrunk for them, and fighting may no longer be an option or lead to a solution for their ‘cause’. Therefore, the condition of western forces’ withdrawal and the current intensive spring-offensive against the Afghan government are clearly pressurizing maneuvers of the Taliban to put themselves in a better bargaining position with the Afghan government. Besides these extreme conditions, the Taliban have softened their stand on a number of other crucial issues, especially girls’ education.

By Abdul Ghafoor

Apr 22, 2015

pk - Copy

It is often said that Pak-China ties are ‘deeper than the ocean and higher than the Himalayas’. Recently these ties have superseded all such theoretical metaphors, particularly in light of the visit by the Chinese President Mr Xi Jinping to Pakistan, and the numerous Memorandums that were signed during this stay.

Pakistan and China have signed over 51 MoUs worth $46 billion in areas of energy and infrastructure; work on these projects is expected to commence immediately. Chinese investment in Pakistan comes at a time when it is vitally important, and it has quickly entirely overshadowed the intermittent US economic aid, given to Pakistan over a long period of 10-15 years.

These investments will greatly help Pakistan in overcoming its rising energy-shortage issues that have been the foremost irritant in preventing the growth of commercial industry in Pakistan. With enough energy, Pakistan can enhance its exports significantly and generate higher jobs. Furthermore, the Gwadar port of Pakistan will become an economic center for South and Central Asia. The port will become an important refueling center for trade cargoes moving towards the South East and the Far East.

The Chinese investment in Pakistan is a part of China’s Grand Strategy to maturate its comparatively underdeveloped western areas and bring them at par with eastern China. Besides this, the Chinese are committed to diversifying their energy corridors and rendering their energy security invulnerable.

The trade corridor will give China closer access to the resources of the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and Africa. Secondly, China has developed very close ties with Central Asian Republics, whose resources could be exploited and exported westward via Gwadar. Above all else, the Chinese efforts to connect Pakistan, Afghanistan, and CARs in a close-knit economic web will entail stability and prosperity for the region, and is therefore in the best interests of all states in the region.

By Saima Aman Sial

March 03, 2015

Nuclear-Power[1]

Introduction

Nuclear energy is considered to be a reliable source of energy that steers clear of fossil fuels, releases less radioactivity than coal-fired power plants and stands unaffected by the oil and gas prices fluctuations. Among some basic questions asked about nuclear energy is the question of how safe is the nuclear energy. Presently, there are some 435 operable civil nuclear power nuclear reactors around the world, with a further 71 under construction.[1]

Though Chernobyl and Three Miles Island faced nuclear accidents, only Chernobyl has been classified as a major accident by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Moreover, after Chernobyl there have been no deaths attributed to radiation exposure from the Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). The plans for nuclear energy have, hence, remained undeterred even after the Fukushima nuclear power plants accident. The evidence over six decades shows that nuclear power is a safe means of generating electricity. The graphical depiction, presented by World Nuclear Association, also illustrates the risk of accidents in nuclear power plants is low and declining.01

Courtesy: World Nuclear Association

In order to address the concerns being variously voiced about the safety of nuclear power plants, it is important to understand the redundancy of safety features that are put in place to ensure the safety of the nuclear power plant as well as the safety of individuals living in vicinity of the plant from radiation exposure. There are various physical barriers put in place to ensure that the radiation does not leak to the atmosphere. Technically, it includes the fuel enclosed in fuel pallet, pallets covered in metal tubes, the covering around it, the reactor vessel which houses them and finally the containment. Even the containment has two steel-and-concrete domes with airspace in between. The robustness of contemporary generation of nuclear power plants is such that it can sustain a major level earthquake originating from beneath its surface.

Putting the debate about the Karachi Nuclear Power Plants in perspective, the safety features incorporate active as well as passive measures and hence the plant can operate safely without causing hazardous radiation exposure for local population. This report attempts to discuss some of the common safety concerns in this regard and layout the existing measures available to dispel the concerns.

Pakistan’s Nuclear Energy plan and Experience in Safe Reactor Operation

Pakistan’s quest for nuclear energy for peaceful uses is as old as the Atoms for Peace Program of the U.S. (1953). Since then Pakistan has been operating to research reactors, PAR-I and PAR-II, KANUPP and Chashma I and II. Later, when India diverted nuclear fuel from the Canadian reactor for a nuclear explosion illegally, Canada moved out of its agreement with Pakistan to operate its Karachi Nuclear power Plant (KANUPP). The Pakistani scientist and engineers however have been operating the plant successfully without the vendor support for 40 years now.[2]

As of 2012, Nuclear power contributed 4.7% in the overall electricity generation.[3] Pakistan’s Energy Security Action Plan decided to increase the share of nuclear energy in the overall energy mix to address the electricity shortage in the country. The plan envisages 8800 MWe by 2030 and 40,000 MW of electricity generation through nuclear power.

The Chashma Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) have been successfully operating and since their installation no incident relating to the safety has been reported during their operation. This amply demonstrates the skills as well as professionalism of Pakistan’s scientists and engineers in operating nuclear reactors at par with internationally acclaimed best practices. The units 1 & 2 of Chashma NPPs contribute 325 MWe each, to the national grid and have a high efficiency rate compared to other sources of electricity production, as depicted in the bar graph below;02

 Courtesy – Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Official Website

Apart from operating at their optimal capacity, it is educating to note that the reactors have been contributing in providing cheap energy compared to electricity produced by Hydro, coal and other Independent Power producers (IPPs), as illustrated in the graph below;

03

Courtesy – Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Official Website

As regards the new nuclear power plants at Karachi site, the K-2 and K-3 NPPs would be an important contribution in the overall plan of 8800MW by 2030. Only these two units would contribute 2,200MWe to the national grid and would help overcome the power crisis.[4]

K-2 and K-3 Safety Concerns

Since news about the new units to be installed at KANUPP site, there has been a lot of concern being raised regarding the safety of people living in close vicinity with the plant (within a 30km radius). In this regard, some concerned citizens cite the Pakistan Environmental Protection Act, 1997, which stipulates that before the commencement of a project on such a large scale, a public message should be issued alongside the date and time of a public hearing.[5] Hence, they claim they have not been taken into confidence. It is important to note here that the Pakistan Environmental Protection Act, 1997, had the provision to skip the public hearing of an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) if the case was of ‘national importance’.[6] In this regard, Sindh Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA) had given an NOC after its experts approved the project in 2013. Furthermore, to address the public fears PAEC would still carry out a public hearing on the project.

Regarding the design features of ACP-1000 plant that China would supply, the Chinese model reactor has passed the Generic Reactor Safety Review of the International Atomic Energy Agency as a third-generation plant after one-year evaluation. With regard to the apprehensions of radioactivity in case of an accident, there are several aspects of the debate that have to be understood. Firstly, before selection of the site, several geological and seismic studies are conducted to understand the site and look for active seismicity traces. The K-2 & K-3 site has been selected after a thorough survey conducted by the IAEA and Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority (PNRA). The historical experience suggests that the highest tsunami that may be expected in Karachi is 2.8 metres above the sea-level, while the K-2 and K-3 are 12 metres above the sea-level. Moreover, the plant can withstand an earthquake of 9 magnitude on the Richter scale, though the maximum projection for the site is 8.[7] PAEC examined the site ground for major earthquake history, collecting all the instrumental, historical data and claimed that that all seismic fault lines near the plants are inactive.[8]

Addressing these fears that are generally caused because of lack of technical knowledge and understanding of nuclear technology and its safety features, Chairman PAEC Dr. Ansar Pervez stated that “there is more radioactivity in air flight from Islamabad to Karachi than in living next to a nuclear site. He also maintained that the K-2 and K-3 will pose no threat to marine life including fishes and other species. “There will be a limited effect on fish; we’ve already conducted different studies to ensure minimum threat to the marine life.”[9]

The ACP-1000 is a ‘Pressurised Water Reactor’ (PWR) and is in industrial use for over four decades. These are Generation III plants and have several layers of active and passive safety features to augment safety. According to PAEC General Manager Azfar Minhaj, chances of nuclear accident in third generation plant are 1 in 80 million a year.[10] The safety features include, passive safety system to perform residual heat removal, molten core retaining and containment heat removal. The system can provide cooling for 72 hours without electricity. To ensure that there is no release of radioactivity to the outside, there is filtered ventilation that serves as an additional barrier to the release of radioactivity. The double-shell containment also provides additional protection in this regard.[11]

Conclusion

Pakistan is an energy deficient country and is contemplating the use of various sources of energy to overcome the crisis. The load shedding of electricity has caused major crisis for Pakistan’s industry and hence for the economy. To address these issues, Pakistan’s Energy Security Plan 2050, envisages 40,000 megawatt to be contributed through nuclear power. Hence, nuclear power is quintessential for Pakistan’s growing energy needs and to address the ever increasing power load shedding crisis. The Karachi Nuclear Power Plants would contribute some 2200 MWe to this overall energy plan.

Pakistan is one amongst some 31 states that are pursuing nuclear energy programmes to overcome their energy needs. The PAEC is a professional nuclear energy producer that has thus far supplied nuclear power in a cost-effective, efficient manner and has an impeccable record of nuclear safety. The fears about the safety of K-2 and K-3 therefore need to be seen in their right perspective and undue alarm should be dispelled in this regard. The advanced reactor design with in build safety features alongside the review by IAEA provides the confidence to carry on with the project efficiently to address the burgeoning power crisis in the country.


Reference

[1] “Number of nuclear reactors operable and under construction”, World Nuclear Association, available at: http://www.world-nuclear.org/Nuclear-Basics/Global-number-of-nuclear-reactors/
[2] KANUPP celebrates 40 Years of safe operation, Pakistan Observer, 1 January, 2013, available at: http://pakobserver.net/201301/01/detailnews.asp?id=189666
[3] Nuclear Power in Pakistan, World Nuclear Association, February 2015, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Country-Profiles/Countries-O-S/Pakistan/
[4] “32 nuclear plants to produce 40,000MW: PAEC”, The News International, 27 February, 2014, available at: http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-3-235039-32-nuclear-plants-to-produce-40,000MW:-PAEC
[5]Safety concerns over nuclear power plants project site”, Dawn, 12 November, 2014, available at: http://www.dawn.com/news/1143822
[6] “Nuclear plant project okayed after secret EIA hearing”, Dawn, 3 February, 2014, available at:
[7] Author’s discussion with a PNRA official on 13 March, 2015.
[8]Nuclear power: ‘K-2, K-3 nuclear reactors more safe than Fukushima”, Express Tribune,
24 January, 2014, available at: http://tribune.com.pk/story/662959/nuclear-power-k-2-k-3-nuclear-reactors-more-safe-than-fukushima/
[9] “32 nuclear plants to produce 40,000MW: PAEC”, The News International, 27 February, 2014.
[10] Taking into confidence: PAEC intends to gather public support for nuclear plants planned for city, Express Tribune, 18 January, 2015, available at: http://tribune.com.pk/story/823856/taking-into-confidence-paec-intends-to-gather-public-support-for-nuclear-plants-planned-for-city-karachi-city/
[11] Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission Official Website, available at http://www.paec.gov.pk/Parameters

By Dr. Nazir hussain & Sannia Abdullah

Feb 26, 2015

indo-sirilanka copyThe newly-elected President of Sri Lanka, Maithripala Sirsisena, in his first visit abroad has chosen India to show his preference and future direction of foreign policy approach. He and Premier Narindara Modi signed an agreement on nuclear safety aiming to provide Sri Lanka with nuclear energy infrastructure, heralding a strategic understanding to forge closer ties between the two states. This is an important development in the South Asian security calculus depicting a new look of Sri Lankan regional approach and Indian growing influence in South Asia undermining Pakistani and Chinese role in the region. Therefore, this article endeavours to discuss the new-found Indo-Sri Lanka relations, especially the nuclear agreement, and its implications on regional security.

Historical Context

The relations between India and Sri Lanka date back to the period of Emperor Ashoka in the 4th Century BC, when Buddhism was introduced in this Island. India and Sri Lanka are connected by sea through the Palk Strait in the Bay of Bengal. The bilateral relations remained cordial until the initiation of Indira Doctrine, which envisaged Indian dominant role in the resolution of disputes in South Asia countries. In this context, the Indian role remained controversial in the Sri Lankan civil war between the Tamils and the Sinhalese; Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) and Lankan central government. India supported the Tamil Tigers whole-heartedly and, ultimately, through the 1987 Accord, directly intervened in Sri Lanka under the pretext of controlling the Sri Lankan civil war. Though the situation stabilized, the Indian role became controversial and, ultimately, soared after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in 1991, which was blamed on the Tamil Tigers. The LTTE was labeled terrorist entity by India in 1992. The role of China and Pakistan during the civil war was crucial as both these countries supplied weapons, trained the Islanders in counter-insurgency operations, and helped the country rebuild and stabilize politically. Consequently, Sri Lanka became close to China and Pakistan and Indian role was marginalized.

Sri Lanka is India’s largest trading partner in South Asia. In 2013, the bilateral trade reached up to U.S. $3.7 billion. The major areas of investment by India include petroleum, telecom, IT, copper, real estate, hospital, tourism, banking and food industries and food processing products. India proactively participated in the rehabilitation and relief programme, particularly after the tsunami disaster. Thus, Sri Lanka became the recipient of $167.4 million development credit given by India. In development sector, India is instrumental in assisting Sri Lankan government in both mega and micro projects, including renovation of Palaly Airport, Kankesanthurai Harbour, construction of a Cultural Centre in Jaffna, interconnection of electricity grids between the two countries, construction of a 150-bed hospital in Dickoya and setting up a coal power plant in Sampur as a joint venture between National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) and Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB). The total Indian investment is $1.3 billion in Sri Lanka. However, despite the growing economic and trade relations, Sri Lanka remained closer to China and Pakistan than India under the government of President Rajparkash.

New-Found Relations

With the trip of the new Sri Lankan President, Maithripala Sirisena, to India in February 2015, the bilateral cooperation between the two countries has moved forward consolidating into ‘strategic partnership’. On February 16, 2015, President Sirsisena and PM Modi signed a joint agreement on nuclear safety aiming to provide Sri Lanka with nuclear energy infrastructure. It is expected that India will also supply Sri Lanka with small nuclear reactor of 600MW capacity to be established by 2030. The agreement’s initial step is to fulfill energy requirement, which is likely to expand further to involve security and strategic needs. This bilateral cooperative agreement would assist Sri Lanka through exchange of knowledge, resources, capacity-building and providing expertise in the realm of peaceful uses of nuclear energy (including radioisotopes, nuclear safety, radiation safety and nuclear security), and cooperation in radioactive waste management and nuclear and radiological disaster mitigation.

Regional Implications

From the standpoint of IAEA safeguards, the deal is congruous to international standards and practices. Even though the deal does not amount much, it carries political significance. The incumbent political leadership in Sri Lanka has asked for a review of $1.5 billion project of creating a port city near the Colombo port. The agreement of creating of dubbed port city was signed between the previous government of (Sri Lanka) and Chinese government. Chinese President Xi Jinping inaugurated the construction work in September 2014, in an attempt to strengthen China’s maritime strategy and connect South East Asia and South Asia through the Silk Route. According to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, “All the activities of the Port City deal were done without transparency and without following many legal procedures. The agreement was signed without cabinet approval.” China hopes that the new government overcomes this controversy; nonetheless, expects to respect the state-level agreement signed between the two governments; as China has investments of about $6 billion in Sri Lanka and the bilateral trade of $3.14 billion (2011) that may be jeopardized after the decision of new Lankan government to review the project.

The strategic cooperation at the onset of new political governments on both sides carries strategic implications for regional politics. To offset the Chinese ‘string of pearls’ strategy, India has straddled fast through economic and military inroads in the Indian Ocean Rim states through the islands of Mauritius, Maldives, Seychelles and Madagascar and the rim states of South Africa, Tanzania and Mozambique. The blue water navy of India is also seeking to train, equip and provide assistance, including hydrographic support to the island nations to secure and advance its naval interests in the Ocean.

The Sri Lanka-India nuclear deal aims to highlight Indian interests to maintain its political influence over other South Asian states as a regional hegemon; while, at the same time, it guards Indian Ocean from China’s over-stretching naval wing. As already stated by a Chinese official, the Indian Ocean is not confined to India, China is likely to assert its economic influence through enhancing developmental projects. The construction of offshore port city close to Colombo is another pearl in its string.

The realpolitik assumptions demand that the Sri Lankan government strikes a balance between the two regional economic giants, China and India, and continue to seek financial benefits from

each one of them. That is challenging as Modi government is interested to finish off the Chinese influence from Sri Lanka as it attempts to outshine Indian hegemony in the region.

Conclusion

The India-Sri Lankan nuclear deals symbolizes the growing Indian assertiveness in the South Asian security calculations; as both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh now have pro-India governments and are being courted to undermine the growing Chinese and Pakistani roles. The Deal also signifies Indian confidence as a supplier state after being given the status of a de facto ‘Nuclear State’ in the backdrop of the Indo-U.S. nuclear deal and NSG wavier. India, under the BJP, is re-crafting the ‘Indira Doctrine’ of becoming a regional hegemon in South Asia. This episode may result in a conflictual security architecture in South Asia, rather than developing a cooperative mechanism for regional peace, progress and development.

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